Q3 2025 Logistics Industry Report: Trends in Intermodal, 3PLs, and AI-Driven Automation
- Peter Qian
- Oct 9
- 11 min read
Market Overview: Resilient Economy, Soft Freight Volumes
The U.S. logistics sector in Q3 2025 presented a mixed picture of economic resilience and muted freight activity. Broadly, the economy avoided recession and consumer spending held up, yet freight volumes remained subdued. Shipment counts have continued trending below last year's levels – for instance, the Cass Freight Index showed August freight shipments down about 9.3% year-over-year[1]. This ongoing freight downturn follows the post-pandemic correction seen in 2023–2024, and it reflects destocking and cautious import patterns by shippers. At the same time, overall freight expenditures were roughly flat versus a year ago[2], indicating higher transportation rates per shipment despite lower volumes. In fact, average freight costs per shipment are nearly 10% higher year-on-year[3], due in part to a shift from LTL to truckload modes and carriers securing rate increases to cover inflationary costs.
Freight volumes remained soft through Q3 2025. The Cass Freight Index for shipments (chart above) highlights the continued downturn: as of August 2025, shipment volumes were about 9% lower than the prior year[1]. This extended decline follows a boom in 2021–2022 and a correction in 2023–2024. However, some segments like truckload and intermodal showed pockets of growth even as overall volumes sagged[4]. Truckload activity has ticked up modestly, buoyed by resilient consumer goods demand, while LTL volumes have declined sharply, weighing on the total freight index[4].
Encouragingly, capacity adjustments are tightening the market. Many small trucking fleets exited over the past year, which has helped bring supply closer in line with demand[5]. By mid-2025, industry indices recorded the first sequential gains in freight volumes in nearly three years[6], and the ratio of loads-to-trucks on spot markets began rising. Market conditions are better than a year ago from a carrier perspective – the exodus of struggling carriers and operators is creating a more balanced environment[5]. Spot rates that plummeted in 2023 have stabilized and even shown slight upticks in late Q3, especially for van and refrigerated loads[7][8]. Contract rates, which lagged the spot market, are also bottoming out. Overall, while freight volumes remain below their peak, the worst of the freight recession appears to be over, and analysts predict a gradual rebound in rates through the end of the year[9][10].
Intermodal and Drayage: Sustained Momentum in Container Freight
Intermodal freight – the movement of shipping containers by rail and truck – has been a relative bright spot. International container volumes have surged, thanks to strong imports and easing supply chain bottlenecks. Last year’s data showed an impressive +9.8% year-over-year jump in total intermodal volume in Q3 2024[11], led by a 15% spike in international (port) containers. This momentum carried into 2025. In mid-2025, U.S. ports handled near-record cargo as retailers rushed to bring in goods ahead of potential new tariffs. July 2025 saw a flood of imports, with container throughput up ~1.8% from the prior year and about 20% higher than June[12]. This surge – effectively an early peak season – kept intermodal rail ramps and drayage carriers busy. Drayage providers (who handle short-haul container moves from ports) faced tightened chassis availability and higher demand as shippers front-loaded inventory over the summer[12].
However, the import boom was short-term and policy-driven. As new tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and other trade partners loomed, many importers pulled forward orders, creating a spike followed by an expected lull[13][14]. Industry forecasts indicate that fall 2025 port volumes will moderate, with major gateways like Los Angeles/Long Beach projected to see high-single to double-digit percentage declines year-on-year in Q4[14]. Part of this is simply timing – 2025’s peak shipping season hit earlier than usual – and part is due to comparisons to late 2024, when shippers accelerated imports amid West Coast labor unrest. Even with a softer fourth quarter, the first half of 2025 was up 3.6% in import volume compared to 2024, and total intermodal traffic for the full year is on pace to be only slightly below last year’s record[15]. In short, intermodal networks proved resilient. Railroads and ports added capacity and improved fluidity, preventing the congestion seen in prior years. Drayage operations also benefited from new technology (e.g. appointment systems and better visibility) to handle volume surges more smoothly.
Looking ahead, logistics teams in intermodal and drayage are watching trade policy closely. The tariff environment remains volatile, with 2025 bringing new trade barriers that could reshape import flows[16]. Many beneficial cargo owners have begun diversifying sourcing and using East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to mitigate risk. At the same time, the long-term advantages of intermodal – cost efficiency and lower emissions – are keeping it central to big shippers’ strategies. With diesel prices creeping upward and truck capacity tightening, intermodal could gain further share in 2026 if service reliability continues to improve. Overall, the third quarter demonstrated that intermodal is firmly back as a growth engine for freight, and drayage carriers will remain essential partners in the inland movement of those containers.
Freight Brokers and 3PLs: Navigating a Shifting Market
For freight brokers, 3PLs, and other non-asset logistics providers, Q3 2025 was a period of adjustment and guarded optimism. The soft freight market of late 2024 and early 2025 squeezed margins for many brokers, but conditions are now stabilizing. In a recent industry survey, 39% of freight brokers reported that spot rates in the first half of 2025 were higher than the prior year, and a striking 78% said their contract rates were higher year-over-year[17][18]. These figures reflect how many brokers locked in favorable contract pricing even as the spot market slumped, and they hint that the market may have bottomed out in early 2025. Indeed, roughly 80% of brokers expect rates to remain steady or rise in the next six months[18] – a notable confidence in a rebound.
Large third-party logistics firms (3PLs) also saw volumes hold up better than expected in certain segments. Domestic truckload brokerage was tepid, but areas like dedicated contracting, final-mile delivery, and warehousing services stayed strong. The global 3PL market is booming at an estimated $1.4 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. accounting for about $300 billion of that[19]. Growth is fueled by continued outsourcing of supply chain functions and the relentless rise of e-commerce. Approximately 95% of online retailers now use 3PL providers for fulfillment or transport[20], and e-commerce now makes up as much as 70% of business for many 3PLs[20]. This secular growth helped top logistics firms weather the cyclical freight downturn.
That said, margin pressures and competition are intense. According to a 2025 survey, 72% of 3PLs cited rising operational costs as their number-one challenge – costs like labor, fuel, and real estate that have been hard to contain[21]. Technology investment was the second-biggest concern (56% of 3PLs)[22], although this was down from prior years as many have already made significant tech upgrades. Interestingly, finding and retaining customers has surged as a challenge, with 46% of 3PLs naming customer acquisition as a major pain point (up 13 percentage points in two years)[22]. This reflects the increasingly crowded 3PL marketplace, where providers are fighting for shipper contracts amid economic uncertainty. Shippers, for their part, are laser-focused on cost control and performance. While fewer shippers this year see cutting transport costs as their single biggest challenge (32%, down from 41%)[23], it remains their top concern. Other shipper priorities like process improvement, customer service, and supply chain visibility have also dipped slightly in perceived urgency[24] – perhaps because shippers made progress on those fronts during the pandemic – but they are still important differentiators when choosing logistics partners.
To stand out, brokers and 3PLs are investing in value-added services and efficiency gains. Many now offer consulting, direct-to-store delivery, and even sustainability initiatives as part of their service portfolio. The most popular special services among 3PLs include transportation consulting (offered by 83% of providers) and reverse logistics (69%), as companies seek help with returns and end-to-end supply chain management[25]. Notably, some formerly hot areas like green/sustainable logistics have seen a pullback in emphasis (only 54% of 3PLs offer sustainability services, down 12 points from a year ago)[25]. This suggests that, in a tighter market, immediate operational concerns are trumping longer-term initiatives – a practical mindset typical of logistics leaders.
The Rising Role of Automation and AI in Logistics
One striking trend in 2025 is the accelerating adoption of technology, especially automation and artificial intelligence (AI), across the logistics industry. Facing labor shortages and cost pressures, logistics companies are turning to tech to do more with less. Nearly half of all logistics firms have now implemented AI or machine-learning solutions in some part of their operation[26]. Among organizations that have adopted AI for back-office or operational workflows, 98% say it’s an important or even vital component of their business[27]. In other words, virtually all logistics leaders who’ve seen AI in action recognize it as a game-changer. And investment is pouring in – about 70% of industry executives report they are willing to invest further in AI-powered automation to fuel growth[27].
So where is AI making an impact? Primarily in streamlining manual, repetitive processes that have long bogged down logistics teams. For example, back-office tasks like invoice auditing, track-and-trace calls, document processing, and data entry are now being handled by intelligent automation. A recent analysis in DC Velocity notes that freight businesses still struggle with inefficiencies in these areas – from reconciling billing discrepancies to chasing shipment status updates across emails and carrier websites[28][29]. These administrative duties are time-consuming and error-prone when done by staff. AI offers a solution: by automating tasks such as invoice validation, exception alerts, and paperwork processing, AI can dramatically reduce errors and speed up workflows[30]. Instead of a person spending hours cross-referencing spreadsheets and PODs, an AI agent can verify an invoice against contracts and flag any overcharges within seconds[28][30]. Likewise, AI systems can monitor all incoming tracking updates and emails to immediately detect delays or disruptions, then route an alert to the right team member – a job that used to require employees sifting through dozens of messages[29][31]. By offloading repetitive chores to machines, logistics companies free up their human teams to focus on customer service, exceptions, and strategic planning.
Not surprisingly, logistics tech providers have proliferated, offering AI-driven solutions that can plug into existing systems. One example is Ventus AI, which provides an automation platform for freight brokers and 3PLs. Ventus’s AI agents can handle core operational workflows – quoting rates, building loads in a TMS, tracking shipments, and even generating invoices – without any custom IT integration[32]. A freight brokerage using such a tool can automatically pull tender emails, input load details into their transportation management system, retrieve updates from load boards or carrier portals, and trigger customer notifications, all in the background. In practice, this translates to significant labor savings. (For instance, one Ventus AI customer reports processing 150 shipment invoices in 3 minutes – a task that took over 10 hours manually[33].) The accuracy and speed of AI are also proving superior: modern AI document processing can achieve ~99% accuracy on reading invoices or bills, minimizing costly billing errors[34]. Given these benefits, it’s easy to see why nearly 2 in 3 logistics professionals say AI is already a significant contributor to their daily work and a major driver of data quality improvements[35].
Beyond back-office automation, other tech trends in Q3 2025 included continued rollout of warehouse robotics, IoT tracking devices for real-time cargo visibility, and cloud-based transportation management systems accessible on mobile. Many 3PLs and shippers are moving toward fully digital documentation – 43% of organizations have mostly transitioned to digital docs over paper, which has improved operational metrics for 89% of them[36]. In transportation, route optimization algorithms and digital freight matching platforms are helping to squeeze out empty miles. Nearshoring and supply chain re-balancing are also supported by advanced modeling tools: an industry survey found 59% of logistics respondents are pursuing nearshoring/reshoring strategies to mitigate disruptions, alongside techniques like network optimization and lean best practices[37]. Technology is enabling these shifts by providing better data and predictive analytics. Crucially, the talent factor is not being ignored – even as AI rises, companies are retraining staff for higher-value roles (like analyzing AI outputs or exception management). The net effect is a more agile, digitally enabled logistics operation emerging from the challenges of recent years.
Outlook and Strategies for Logistics Leaders
As we leave Q3 and head into the final stretch of 2025, the logistics industry is poised at an inflection point. The consensus is cautiously optimistic: most analysts and industry players anticipate a modest uptick in freight volumes and rates in Q4, barring any macroeconomic shock. The early peak shipping season means the traditional holiday surge will be milder, but on the flip side, warehouses are better prepared and retailers are not overstocked – this could lead to a “mini restock” uptick if consumer demand surprises to the upside[38]. Carriers and brokers that endured the tough market of the past 18 months should start to see improving fundamentals as capacity and demand rebalance. However, uncertainty remains around trade policy and tariffs, which continue to evolve. Logistics leaders will need contingency plans for sudden swings in import flows or costs if geopolitical tensions escalate[16].
To thrive in this environment, logistics and supply chain executives are prioritizing a few key strategies:
Embrace Automation and AI: Practically 98% of logistics leaders affirm the importance of AI in back-office operations[27]. Adopting automation for track-and-trace, billing, customer updates, and other workflows can deliver immediate ROI through cost savings and better service. Organizations should pilot AI solutions (if not already doing so) and scale successful use cases to stay competitive. The gains in efficiency and accuracy directly tackle the industry’s top pain points[30].
Focus on Cost Efficiency: With rising operational costs a top concern for 72% of 3PLs[21], companies must continue trimming waste and improving utilization. This might include optimizing truckload fill rates, consolidating LTL shipments, renegotiating carrier contracts, or investing in fuel-efficient equipment. Lean initiatives and continuous improvement cultures are proving their worth now more than ever.
Build Resilience in the Supply Chain: The past years taught hard lessons about overreliance on single sourcing or just-in-time. Strategies like nearshoring, diversifying carrier partners, and holding strategic buffer inventory are gaining traction[37]. By shortening supply lines (e.g. shifting some sourcing from overseas to Mexico or domestically) and redesigning distribution networks for flexibility, shippers can better absorb shocks. Many firms are using advanced modeling to simulate “what-if” scenarios and prepare backup plans for events like port strikes or natural disasters.
Enhance Visibility and Customer Service: Even as it fell slightly in surveys, supply chain visibility remains a critical differentiator. Shippers increasingly expect real-time tracking and proactive communication. Logistics providers should leverage telematics, cargo sensors, and cloud platforms to give customers 24/7 visibility of their freight. Likewise, maintaining high service levels is vital – a recent shipper survey still found poor customer service to be the #1 reason they’d drop a 3PL partnership[39]. Reliable delivery performance (e.g. on-time rates above 95%) and swift issue resolution will secure customer loyalty in a competitive market.
In summary, Q3 2025 demonstrated both the challenges and the forward momentum in the logistics sector. Freight volumes may be recovering slowly, but the industry’s push toward efficiency, technology, and smarter strategies is in full swing. Ventus AI believes that sharing these market insights is one way to exercise thought leadership and help our community of freight brokers, 3PLs, and shippers stay ahead of the curve. By understanding the latest trends – from intermodal growth to AI automation – logistics leaders can make informed decisions that turn challenges into opportunities. Q3’s lessons underscore a clear message: those who innovate and adapt will drive the next chapter of growth in logistics. As we head into Q4 and beyond, staying agile, data-driven, and customer-centric will be the key to delivering results in this dynamic industry.
Sources: Connected and cited above.
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[11] Intermodal In The News
[12] [13] [14] [15] Container Imports Drop Following Summer Pre-Tariff Surge - Fleet Management - Trucking Info
[27] [35] [36] AI Takes the Wheel: 98% of Logistics Leaders Say AI is Vital for Back Office Operations - Hyperscience
[28] [29] [30] [31] AI Revolutionizing Transportation & Logistics Back-Office Operations | DC Velocity
[38] Outlook for Q3–Q4 2025: Supply Chain Challenges and Trends
